The National Hurricane Center has recently expanded and provided more detail in its Offshore Zone forecast product, in order to provide better service for the Blue Water mariners.

Published 2 years ago

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been issuing plain text marine forecasts for a configuration of 32 offshore zones in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and much of the Atlantic Ocean south of 31N and west of 55W since 2011.

At that time, the zones were designed to offer adequate forecast precision while limiting the number of zones as much as possible. Several of the zones were fairly large as a result, occasionally requiring TAFB forecasters to include additional text during active weather patterns, resulting in complex text.

Existing Zones Expanded and New Zones Added

Recently, the 32 existing zones have become 52 zones and 8 new zones have been created in the Atlantic Ocean. This brings the total of our Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean offshore zones to 60.

Dr. Chris Landsea, Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch Chief at the NHC said forecast quality should improve by aligning the zone configuration more closely with the local wind and wave climatology.

“The new smaller zones should also result in more precise wording, thus better informing mariners about adverse conditions. Given that experienced mariners also understand the local weather patterns, these new zones result in enhanced forecast accuracy and a better. service to marine users,” he said.

“The new TAFB offshore zones are roughly the same size as those issued by the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), which issues offshore marine forecasts for the U.S. East Coast, north of NHC/TAFB’s area of responsibility (note that the previous NHC/TAFB offshore zones were much larger than OPC’s zones). These new smaller zones balance precision and clarity.”

Increased Weather Knowledge for Cruising Community

Commodore Joan Conover, President of the Seven Seas Cruising Association (SSCA) welcomed the product enhancements.

“Seven Seas Cruising Association, as Blue Water Mariners, participates with and briefs this NOAA team yearly as an advocate for offshore cruising boats,” Joan said.  ” The revision of the zones to reflect standardization with the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) is a good enhancement with product detail that should increase the weather knowledge available to our cruising community.”

For more information contact: 

Chris Landsea, NHC/TAFB Branch Chief

email:  Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov
PH: +1 305-229-4446

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Related News:

New TAFB Marine Zones – NHC

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Related Links:

National Hurricane Center Offshore Waters Forecast

National Hurricane Center Service Change Notice

National Hurricane Center/TAFB Offshore Forecast Reform Story Maps

Seven Seas Cruising Association