The TCO-SP long-range tropical cyclone outlook has now been published for the SW Pacific and also for Australia.

Published 4 years ago

South West Pacific:

The September Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) suggests normal to below normal TC activity for the coming 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season (1st November 2020 to 30th April 2021).

In total, 9 named TCs are expected for the Southwest Pacific
region, fewer than the 1970-2020 average (11 TCs); however, the probable range of named storms is between 7 and 12 TCs.

This expected situation is similar to the 2019/20 TC season, where
9 named TC occurred across the Southwest Pacific basin. There is a 57% chance the season will see below-average (9 TCs or less) activity. There is a 29% chance the season will be near normal
(10-12 TCs) and only a 13% chance that the number of named Southwest Pacific TCs will be above average (13 TCs or more).

Australia:

The September Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia (TCO-AU) suggests normal to above normal TC activity for the coming 2020/21 Australian TC season. In total, 11 named TCs are expected for the Australian region, 10% more than the 1981-2010 average (10 TCs). However, the probable range of named storms could lie between 9 and
15 TCs.

There is a 47% chance the season will see above-average (12 TCs or more) activity. There is a 23% chance the season will be near normal (10-11 TCs) and a 30% chance that the number of named TCs in the Australian region will be below average (9 TCs or more).

See https://tcoutlook.com/ for full details.

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Noonsite has not independently verified this information.