Weather services in the South Pacific are expecting a relatively normal Tropical Cyclone season, with anywhere between four to ten cyclones to occur in the South West Pacific and Coral Sea between November 2024 and March 2025.

Published 2 weeks ago

Normal Tropical Season Predicted

Tropical Cyclones* have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season starting in November and lasting through to April of the following year. For the 2024/2025 season, significant differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the basin according to Fiji, Australia and New Zealand weather forecasters.

Australia Expecting an Average Tropical Cyclone Season

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is urging preparedness for Australia’s severe weather season. While severe weather can happen at any time, every year between October and April is Australia’s peak time for tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms, flooding, heatwaves and bushfires.

In the Bureau’s Warning for the 2024/2025  season, BOM’s National Community Information Manager Andrea Peace said tropical cyclone activity varies from year to year but an average of four tropical cyclones cross Australia’s coast each year.

“Based on historical patterns alone, a near average number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region could be expected this season, with a higher proportion likely to be more severe,” Ms. Peace said.

“Any tropical cyclone can be dangerous and it only takes one to significantly impact communities. Last year we had eight tropical cyclones across northern Australia waters. Four crossed our coast bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flooding.”

New Zealand MetService says Normal to Below Normal Activity

New Zealand’s NIWA and MetService assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) activity for the 2024 cyclone season indicates normal to below normal activity.

Six to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific from November 2024-April 2025 said NIWA.  The long-term average number of named TCs per season is around nine.

Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity with an average of two or three TCs passing nearby each year and NIWA is expecting “ near normal” activity for these countries while Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Northern New Zealand could experience normal or elevated activity.

Fiji Met Service Expects Five to Six Tropical Cyclones

In its outlook for the 2024/2025 season, the Fiji Meteorological Service says five to six Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are likely in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) between November 2024 to April 2025.

On average, around seven TCs affect this area in a season. Thus, this season is predicted to have near average or below average TC activity. Around four TCs per season on average affect west of the Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR and around three to the east.

This season, two to five TCs are likely to affect west of the International Dateline, which means near average or above average TC risk. To the east, two to three TCs are likely, which is a below average risk.

While the TC season in the region is between November and April, occasionally cyclones have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, out of season TCs cannot be ruled out.  The peak TC season in the RMSC-Nadi TCC AoR is usually between January to March, but TCs can form at any time throughout the season.

(*Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being most intense. Tropical cyclones that reach category 3 or higher are classified as severe, with mean (10 minute) wind speeds of at least 119 km/h.)

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Related News:

• Prepare Now the the Severe Weather Season – Australian Bureau of Metereology
• NIWA South West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2024/2025
• Fiji Meteorological Service Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2024/2025

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Related Links:

• Noonsite Weather Resources
• Bureau of Meteorology Australia
• NIWA – New Zealand
• MetService New Zealand
• Fiji Meteorological Service
• Port Denarau Marina Cyclone Procedures

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