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Atlantic: Hurricane Season Update

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, according to the annual mid-season update issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

Published 3 years ago

Sources: NOAA Hurricane Center and NASA Earth Observatory

NOAA’s mid-season update for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater) and four major hurricanes (category 3, 4, 5 with winds 111mph or greater).

“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “We will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”

NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Seas Primed to Fuel Storm Development

Heading into the peak of hurricane season, NASA’s Earth Observatory website reports that the seas around North and Central America are primed to fuel storm development and intensification in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. While sea surface temperatures are just one factor influencing the development of hurricanes, they are a fair predictor of the readiness of the ocean to sustain them.

The map below shows sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as measured on August 11, 2021, by a combination of satellite and ocean instruments. Meteorologists generally agree that SSTs above 27.8° Celsius (82° Fahrenheit) intensify and sustain hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons. Surface waters above that threshold are represented in red on the map. Note the finger of warm water—the Gulf Stream—running parallel to the U.S. East Coast.

Current Sea Temperatures from NASA’s Earth Observatory

Already this season, there have been eight named Tropical Storms or Hurricanes with the National Hurricane Center issuing advisories on the latest storms – Hurricane Grace and Tropical Storm Henri.

Grace and Henri

Hurricane Grace, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring strong winds and a dangerous storm surge to parts of the Eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this week.

Tropical Storm Henri, located about 250 miles southwest of Bermuda, is expected to generate large ocean swells which should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.