Atlantic Weather 2024: Scientists Predict Very Active Hurricane Season
While the official start of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not until June 1st, scientists and weather forecasters are already predicting an extremely active season with as many as 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Published 6 months ago
Active Hurricane Season Predicted
In an early season outlook published at the beginning of April, Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters are expecting the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season to be extremely active.
“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season,” say CSU forecasters.
Well Above Average Probability of Hurricanes for the US and Caribbean
“A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence
for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” said CSU.
“Currently, the tropical Pacific is characterized by El Niño conditions. These El Niño conditions are likely to transition to neutral ENSO conditions in the next few weeks and then to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity through decreases in vertical wind shear. This year’s sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, also favoring an active Atlantic hurricane season via dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are conducive to developing hurricanes.”
Early Hurricane Formation
Weather website AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters say now is the time to prepare for a frenzy of tropical systems. There are signs that the first named system could spin up before the season kicks off as the calendar flips to June, a precursor of what’s to come.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said. This echoes the early warning AccuWeather issued in late February, ringing the alarm bells about the potential for a surge in tropical activity.
2023 Hurricane Season had 19 Named Storms
Last hurricane season featured 19 named storms, but there were only four direct U.S. impacts, said Accuweather Hurricane Idalia was the storm of the year, which slammed into Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in late August. Additionally, Tropical Storm Harold drenched southern Texas, and Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina. Lee also swiped the New England coast as a tropical rainstorm before making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
All signs continue to point toward the upcoming season being worse than the last, with the potential for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to rank as one of the most active in history.
Factors Fueling an Active Season
“Warm water is fuel for tropical systems, and there will be plenty of warm water for fledgling systems to tap into and strengthen,” explained Alex DaSilva.
“Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes]. The Atlantic water temperatures observed in March were around or even warmer than they were in March ahead of the blockbuster 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons.”
National Hurricane Centre Products and Services Updates for 2024
The NOAA Hurricane Seasonal Outlook will be issued on Thursday, May 23. In the meantime the National Hurricane Centre has published a products and services update for the 2024 season. New and updated services include an experimental version of the cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States and an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America.
National Hurricane Centre Products and Services Updates for 2024
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Related News:
- Colorado State University Hurricane Season Forecast 2024
- Yale Climate Connections Predicts Extremely Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Accuweather experts warn of explosive 2024 Hurricane Season
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Related Links:
- Noonsite Cruising Resources: Weather
- Colorado State University Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting
- Yale Climate Connections
- Accuweather
- NOAA National Hurricane Center
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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