On opposite sides of the Atlantic, the UK Met Office and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued their forecasts for the 2023 North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season, which officially starts today, June 1st.

UK Met Office – Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

The UK Met Office says the most likely number of named tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 20, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 14 to 26. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 14.

The most likely number of hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 11, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 8 to 14. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 7.

The most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 5, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 7. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 3.

In 2022, there were 14 named tropical storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes compared to 20 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes in 2021, according to the UK Met Office.

UK Met Office North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast for 2023.

NOAA – Named Storms and Hurricanes

NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).

Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo.

NOAA 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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